Weekend Foot BallBettors got off to a good start in the first game of the season when they supported the Steelers to keep winning following their Super Bowl triumph last February. 70% of the money line action we saw was for the Steelers, despite the absence of Big Ben at QB, although there was more of a balance on the point spread with only 55% of bettors going for Pittsburgh -1. As usual the chalk (favorite) and over combination was popular and with the total set at only 34 the bettors cashed this one with some ease. At this time of year players tend to like to bet the ‘public’ teams that have performed well the previous season and have looked good in pre-season. This week is no exception and we’re seeing some very skewed action. That’s either going to be very good news for us – if most of them don’t cover the spread – or extremely expensive if they do. As of noon on Friday, the most popular teams with bettors so far are: Philadelphia (-5.5) 95% (at Houston) Chicago (-3.5) 96% (at Green Bay) Dallas (+2) 93% (at Jacksonville) Seattle (-6.5) 93% (at Detroit) Denver (-3.5) 90% (at St Louis) Arizona (-7.5) 90% (hosting San Francisco) Cincinnati (+3) 88% (at Kansas City) New England (-10) 85% (hosting Buffalo) The biggest line move so far this week have been: Seattle: now -6.5 from an opening line of -3.5 Philadelphia: now -5.5 from an opening line of -3.5 New England: now -10 from an opening line of -8 Because we bet -105 on pro and college football on Fridays we find that the level of action is usually a good indicator of where the money is likely to go down with bettors on Saturday and Sunday. The unusual thing about the betting pattern so far is the level of support for teams playing on the road. Normally where we see a big skew towards public teams it is when they are playing at home but six of the eight most popular teams are playing away this weekend. Most bettors know that taking a favorite on the road is a dangerous ploy so we are surprised to see so much money for Philadelphia, Chicago, Seattle and Denver. The money for the Seahawks is especially suprising, given the absolutely appalling record of teams that have lost in the Super Bowl against the spread in the first game of the following season (no team has covered in the past six years). Personally I would be happy to be on Houston with a +5.5 point start and I think St Louis are interesting with a 3.5 point start at home. However I think bettors have got it right with the Bears and I agree that they should rollover the Packers with few problems. |
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